What does the future look like for the net zero agenda under the Conservative government?
Just a year ago, as the UK was preparing to host the COP26 in Glasgow, all eyes were on Boris Johnson’s government’s ‘Net Zero Strategy’ and ‘ten-point plan for a green industrial revolution’ – both of which outlined decarbonisation pathways to achieve net zero by 2050.
A lot has changed since then – including the Prime Minister and the Cabinet. Here are our three main takeaways from the Conservative Party Conference on the new government’s approach to net zero.
Throughout conference, several government ministers and Conservatives MPs repeated what seemed to be the official line: that the UK will not ditch its net zero 2050 target. This of course is good news, but there has been a shift in the way it is expressed – many speakers said they would follow through on commitments because it was now enshrined in law (something the May government did in 2019), rather than because of the necessity to tackle climate change.
This may seem like semantics, but this change in mood is reflected elsewhere. Net zero was barely mentioned in Liz Truss’s 35-minute conference speech and received little attention in the Growth Plan late September. Those in the party who have cast doubt on the policy by suggesting the UK cannot afford net zero and should instead keep expanding fossil fuel production have seemingly been heard. New oil and gas extraction licences in the North Sea opened up last week, while renewable sources, like solar, are now poised to be effectively banned on agricultural land.
Rightly so, Liz Truss’s administration has set two priorities – growing the economy and tackling the cost-of-living and energy crisis. However, by omitting net zero, this plan ignores the fact that a transition to a greener economy would make it easier to deliver on both agendas.
Firstly, provided it comes with the right level of both public and private investments, transitioning to net zero is compatible with growing the economy. According to the Climate Change Committee, 85 per cent of decarbonisation between 2020 and 2035 will involve low-carbon technologies or fuel. The deployment of these technologies at scale, including of the UK’s already existing clean strengths (such as offshore wind, carbon capture and storage and low-carbon products), could benefit the UK economy. As the Treasury’s net zero review – published in 2021 – shows, GDP multipliers for green investments can be up to 2.5 larger than fossil fuel energy investments.
Secondly, the energy crisis has made the transition to net zero even more important. Not only has it made the UK’s reliance on fossil fuels particularly salient (and problematic) but it has also laid bare the scale of energy waste (itself a result of the country’s poor quality housing stock) that only improvements in energy-efficiency would address. Those are particularly needed in the UK’s poorest cities, like Burnley or Blackpool, where nearly 80 per cent of dwellings are energy-inefficient (and bills are higher as a result). A large-scale retrofitting programme would help households with their energy bills now and help lift many out of fuel poverty while cutting domestic carbon emissions and creating thousands of jobs in the construction and retrofit industry.
Getting there will require providing clarity and certainty for the private sector to step in as well as large-scale public investments, and that is still missing from the picture. The Growth Plan mentioned a deployment of onshore wind farms, but no money is being put on the table; and it said nothing about energy-efficiency measures.
Cutting energy consumption is central to both softening the impact of the energy crisis and transitioning to net zero. Retrofitting existing homes should be the low-hanging fruit in the short-term but what is often missing from the policy debate generally – not just at the Conservative Party Conference – is a discussion on the role played by the built environment on our daily lifestyles (and by extension on energy demand).
Centre for Cities research has shown that denser urban footprints limit the amount of energy we consume to both heat our homes and get around. This means that to reduce energy demand (and carbon emissions) in the medium to longer-term, we will need to think carefully about how cities are planned, built and managed. This will require densifying existing built-up areas, whether for new commercial or residential space, and improving public transport networks, but again – none of this will happen without significant levels of investment.
Partnership and Policy Manager Jovana Lalic shares her observations from the Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham.
Our net zero work sets out what needs to change if urban areas are to lead the way in decarbonising the UK’s economy, without leaving people and places behind.
The UK has pledged to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. This report sets out what needs to change if cities and large towns are to lead the way in helping the Government achieve this goal.
This report sets out what the cost of living crisis is, what is driving it, and how the squeeze on disposable incomes is likely to be felt across the UK’s cities and largest towns.
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