01The dividing line of discontent falls between prosperous and underperforming cities

There are differences in levels of discontent – proxied by voting for Brexit or Reform UK in the last general election – between large urban areas and their surrounding hinterlands. Figure 1 shows several things.

Firstly, large cities tend to have lower vote shares for Brexit and Reform UK than their surrounding areas, providing a basis for the ‘cities vs towns’ theory.

Secondly, the hinterlands of London and Bristol – two of the UK’s most successful large cities – have lower voting rates for each. This hints already that the cities vs towns narrative may not hold.

Thirdly, rural areas – places, because of the distance from cities, least likely to directly benefit from the prosperity cities generate – have the highest voting shares for Brexit and Reform UK.