01Bristol’s economic performance

Bristol’s economy has grown relatively quickly recently

Bristol is the strongest performer of all of the UK’s large cities.¹ It has both the highest productivity of any of the group, and the highest share of jobs in knowledge service activities too (and the 6^th highest of any of the UK’s 63 largest cities in 2022).

Its current performance is in part the result of growth seen over the last 20 years. Between 2004 and 2021, Bristol’s , growing by 86 per cent, 31 percentage points more than England and Wales. Over this period, Bristol’s economy went from 1.3 per cent of UK GDP to 1.5 per cent in 2022, becoming a more important part of the national economy.

As the city’s economic output has increased, so too has its number of jobs. The number of jobs in Bristol increased by 21 per cent since 2009 (when comparable jobs data becomes available), 4 per cent more than the rest of England and Wales.

One high skilled sector that has performed particularly well in Bristol is digital, science, and tech – a sector that has grown to constitute 13.4 per cent of all jobs in the city.² It grew at double the speed of the national average (see Figure 1), the 6^th largest increase of any British city.

Economic success has attracted graduates to the city

As well as a growing economy, Bristol saw its population increase too. Figure 2 shows the growth of the city’s population has outstripped the England and Wales average since 2004 (and particularly after 2010), and had the 12th highest growth of any UK city.

This growth has come through a combination of births outstripping deaths and migration from elsewhere. Figure 3 breaks down the different drivers of Bristol’s population growth. Prior to 2016, it was a combination of people coming into Bristol from outside of the UK (international migration) and other parts of the UK (internal migration) that drove the uptick (barring 2013-2014 when internal migration dipped into negative figures). Post-2016, international migration fell away but the city continued to attract people from across the UK – explaining why the city’s population continued to grow. The net inflow of people from outside the city is likely to have been because of the increasing economic opportunity available.

The internal migration data break down by age (data available from 2012), providing better clarity regarding the life stages of those moving into Bristol. Figure 4 shows that net, 16,200 people moved into Bristol from the rest of the UK between 2012 and 2019. Most of the people who moved into the city were aged 18-20 years-old, meaning they were likely coming to Bristol to study for university. Overall, 41,831 people of this age moved into the city over this period.

After this age group, there is a brief period of negative net migration amongst people aged 21 and 22 (-2,030). This figure was likely depressed by the people who left the city after graduating. Its limited scale, though, suggests that substantially more people found work and stuck around than left after finishing their studies.

The inflow of students who stayed was complemented by an additional net inflow of people aged 25 to 34 (+11,968). This flipped for people aged 34 and older, with more leaving than moving in for every age beyond this point. But as stated above, this was not enough to offset the substantial inflow of younger people.

The change in the skills of Bristol residents over this period, combined with the age profile of incomers, suggests that much this inflow has been of higher-skilled people. In 2012 43 per cent of the population were graduates – 8 percentage points higher than the England and Wales average. By 2021, 58 per cent of Bristol’s working age population were graduates – 14 percentage points higher than England and Wales. This was the 5^th largest percentage point increase of any British city.