00Introduction
In her first speech as chancellor Rachel Reeves promised to release the stranglehold that the planning system has around the UK economy. This briefing looks at Bristol to show how this stranglehold impacts a particular place.
It finds that Bristol’s economy has made a growing contribution to the national economy in the last two decades, and its population has become increasingly well-educated over this period. But while the city has seen some of the fastest rates of housebuilding in the country, this has not been enough to keep up with growing demand to live there. The result is that Bristol’s housing shortage, which was already present in 2004, has been compounded since.
Not addressing this affordability crisis will squeeze renters further and risks throttling Bristol’s economy at a time when the UK needs it to make an ever-larger contribution to the national economy. But to address it will require overcoming difficult political choices about building up within the existing urban footprint and building out on parts of the greenbelt.
The next section looks at changes to Bristol’s economy and population over the last two decades. Section 3 looks at how the housing market has responded to these changes. Section 4 sets out options for tackling Bristol’s worsening housing crisis. And the final section offers policy recommendations to both local and national government.
Box 1: Data used in this briefing
Defining Bristol: Here, Bristol is defined as the two local authorities: ‘Bristol, City of’ and ‘South Gloucestershire’ in line with Centre for Cities’ Bristol PUA (except for Figure 9 and Figure 12).
Jobs Data: All jobs’ data comes from the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) annual Business Register and Employment Survey. Their three-digit industry classification is used to determine tech and high skilled jobs.
GVA and GDP Data: All GVA and GDP data is from the ONS’ Regional gross value added and domestic product: local authorities’ datasets.
Population Data: All population data is from the ONS’ population estimates which is based on the results of their latest Census of Population.
Skills Data: All skills data is from the ONS’ annual population survey, using the indicator NVQ4+ aged 16-64. The more recent RQF4+ indicator was not chosen because there isn’t comparable data before 2022.
Migration Data: Internal migration data comes from the ONS which predominantly uses GP registrations supplemented by additional information to track movement between local authorities. Natural increase data comes from the ONS’ registered births and deaths figures. International migration data is calculated by subtracting these two figures from population change.
Dwelling Stock Data: At MSOA level 2001, 2011, and 2021 Census data is used. The city level time-series figures come from the Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) live table 125. MHCLG’s ‘all vacant dwellings’ indicator in live table 615 was used to measure vacant homes
House Price and Wage Data: Data on median, upper and lower quartile house prices come from the ONS’ House Price Statistics for Small Areas. Mean house price data comes from HM Land Registry. All wage data comes from the ONS’ annual survey of hours and earnings. Housing affordability ratio data uses these figures.
Rent Data: The rent data used comes from the ONS’ ‘index of private housing rental prices’ which uses administrative data from the Valuation Office Agency.