03How much could Glasgow’s public transport connectivity improve with better integration?

There are two main ways to respond to the challenges above. The first is to invest in new infrastructure, like the Clyde Metro, alongside increasing the number of potential passengers by increasing the density of housing around public transport stops. And the second is to better integrate transport modes.

The first set of interventions are necessarily long term – the Clyde Metro is timetabled to take 30 years to complete, and house building around public transport stops will be a long-term process. With the introduction of the 2019 Scottish Transport Act and the options this opens up, the second is potentially more immediate. This section models how many extra people could be better connected in and around Glasgow if the system were better integrated across all public transport modes.

Modelling possible improvements under bus regulation: selected geography and assumptions

One way of making urban connectivity better, without major infrastructure investments, is planning the existing network at an integrated level. This can bring benefits, as illustrated in Figure 4, in the following ways:

  • Improving the quality of existing routes (frequency, schedules and complementarity)
  • Setting new routes

Figure 4: Model to measure the impacts of bus regulation

Source: Centre for Cities

This section models the potential of improving these two components separately. To do so, it adopts these assumptions:

Assumption 1: Geography – connectivity to central Glasgow

First, to model the role of public transport integration, an accessibility area and time threshold are defined:

  • Public transport accessibility is measured by the number of residents that can reach Glasgow’s ‘urban core’ in 30 minutes by public transport.
  • The urban core of Glasgow is defined as the area within the subway circle and areas east of the subway with easy access to heavy rail like High Street and Bellgrove (Figure 5). This area is home to around 230,000 jobs, 41 per cent of all jobs in the Glasgow primary urban area.

Figure 5: Glasgow’s urban core

Source: Centre for Cities and ESRI maps

Assumption 2: The definition of accessibility under a non-integrated system

The model considers three connectivity factors: commuting time, type of journey and service frequency. Under the current non-integrated system good public transport accessibility to the urban core is defined as meeting the following criteria:

  • Reach: Areas within 30 minutes of the Glasgow urban core at peak time (where congestion is the highest at 5pm) using one mode of transport only.
  • Type of journey: Journeys must be done using a single mode of transport (e.g. single train; a single bus; etc) only.
  • Frequency: A frequent service is defined as having at least four bus services an hour, or two services per hour for rail.

Assumption 3: The definition of accessibility under an integrated system

A better regulated bus network could change the three factors defined in Assumption 2. An improved version of the network is further defined as meeting the following assumptions:

  • Increased frequencies: If one route can be within a 30-minute commute at peak time (5pm), it is possible to run a service on it at least four times per hour. Evidence from Edinburgh (see below) suggests it is possible to make significant gains on this front.
  • Type of journey: Any routes that can be done in 30 minutes including those with a modal change. With integration, these changes can be coordinated both in fares and schedules.

To note, the objective of the exercise is to show how much the network could benefit from bus franchising and integration and not to set out a full description of what a future network should look like. The potential impacts of setting different new routes will be analysed later in the second part of this section.

Results: improving existing routes

Around 900,000 residents are defined as well-connected today

Centre for Cities’ modelling estimates that there are 880,000 residents well-connected to Glasgow’s urban core in 30 minutes by bus and rail at best.26 Based on schedule data,27 those areas include most of Glasgow’s local authority area (except edges of the local authority like Darnley and Carmunnock), and some parts of Motherwell, Renfrew, and Paisley. This means that areas like Coatbridge, Erskine and Dalmuir are excluded from the best-connected areas (see Figure 6).

Figure 6: The best-connected areas of Glasgow exclude some parts of its built-up area

Sources: Regional and National Timetable Data, UK Bus Open Data Service. Centre for Cities calculations28

More frequent bus services could increase the number of well-connected residents by 25 per cent

The modelling ofhigher bus frequencies alone suggests that this improvement could increase the number of well-connected residents to Glasgow’s urban core by 210,000 (a 24 per cent rise).29 Figure 7 shows how the network coverage would expand by making buses more frequent. The model estimates that areas like Dalmuir and a large part of Motherwell would become well-connected within 30 minutes. Today, these and other neighbourhoods have some services that can reach Glasgow’s urban core in 30 minutes but not with the necessary frequency to be a competitive service against the car.

Figure 7: Improvements that can be achieved with increased bus frequencies

Sources: Regional and National Timetable Data, UK Bus Open Data Service. ESRI map. Centre for Cities calculations

The current performance of Edinburgh’s buses, where most buses are run by Lothian, a municipally-owned company, suggests that such improvements are possible. Unlike Glasgow, most people within 30 minutes of Edinburgh centre by bus have a frequent service. Lothian runs buses at a much greater frequency on average (at least four services per hour), and this means that around 88 per cent of all of Edinburgh’s residents can access the city centre within 30 minutes at peak time using a frequent service.

Modal integration could lead to an increase in the number of well-connected residents by 90,000

The benefits modelled so far do not consider the additional benefits of fully integrating buses with rail and subway. Therefore, the second step of the model considers how many people could access the urban core if they were able to use both the rail and bus network in 30 minutes. A conservative estimate shows a further 90,000 residents become well-connected. The result of better integration alongside increasing bus frequencies would increase the number of well-connected residents at least by 300,000.30

Figure 8 shows that the number of residents living within 30 minutes from the urban core by public transport would be more than one million as a result.

Figure 8: Bus regulation, even without new routes, could considerably increase the coverage of the public transport network

Source: Regional and National Timetable Data, UK Bus Open Data Service. Mid-2021 Small Area Population Estimates for 2011 Data Zones, National Records of Scotland. Centre for Cities calculations

In visual terms, Figure 9 shows that most of Glasgow’s built-up area could be well-connected within 30 minutes from the urban core if these improvements were made. Extensive parts of the south (Newton Mearns or Barrhead) and west (Johnstone or Castlehead) of the urban area would become well-connected. Most of the area around Motherwell and Coatbridge would also become well-connected.

Figure 9: Improvements that can be achieved with better integration

Source: Regional and National Timetable Data, UK Bus Open Data Service. Train Schedules, Open Data Feeds, Network Rail, Centre for Cities calculations31

To stress, this does not mean that all the extra people will use the services but instead shows how the size of the potential market could increase with these improvements.

Results: Setting new routes

The previous analysis focused on improving the existing network with better frequencies and integration. Under bus franchising, new services can be put in place that aren’t currently offered by private operators.

Improving accessibility to Queen Elizabeth University Hospital is a good example of what could be done with the bus regulatory powers in the franchising legislation. The hospital provides care for more than half a million people and employs 14,300 workers. A third of Glasgow residents in SPT’s 2019 Regional Transport Strategy survey said that access to healthcare was an issue, with the lack of direct public transport, frequency and cost being cited as main barriers.32

Currently, bus provision to and from the hospital is not as good as it could be. There are few buses connecting Cardonald station and the hospital (a five-minute drive, but a 22-minute walk). And other areas within 15 minutes by car – e.g. parts of Pollokshaws and Paisley – do not have a quick and regular service to the hospital within 30 minutes. In addition, existing bus services often either stop operating after a certain hour (a problem for shift workers) or do not run frequently outside peak times.33

Centre for Cities’ estimates show that there are around 211,000 residents well-connected to the hospital today at peak time in 30 minutes. By integrating modes of transport, adding new routes and reducing the number of changes, this could increase by 66 per cent (to around 351,000 people) as shown in Figure 10.

Figure 10: Setting new routes and integrating modes can make the hospital more accessible

Source: Google Maps Direction API. Calculations based upon working out journey time between Queen Elizabeth University Hospital and areas within Strathclyde Region, measured in a 1km grid and then intersected with population

Footnotes

  • 26 Based on timetable data as real-time bus data is not available through the open UK Open Bus Data Service in Scotland. Analysis from English cities shows that real-time buses underperform when compared to scheduled ones. Also includes based on how far you can travel from the urban core using rail within 30 minutes, using Network Rail timetable data, with a walking buffer. Walking speed is assumed to be 80 metres per minute, and limited to 800 metres (How far do people walk?, G Wakenshaw and N Bunn, July 2015). See, for example: Brandily P et al (2023), A Tale of Two Cities, London: Resolution Foundation
  • 27 These estimates are based on schedule data, due to the lack of real-time data. Schedule data often covers a larger catchment area than real-time data because it doesn’t always factor in congestion at peak times. Given this, these should be seen as upper bound estimates
  • 28 Calculations are based on timetable data through UK Bus Open Data Service. The area is based on the time it takes to travel from bus stops across the Strathclyde Region to a bus stop within the Glasgow urban core. As bus users are likely to combine their bus journey with walking, buffer zones have been added to demonstrate the areas accessible. It is assumed that bus users will walk no further than 800 metres to their bus stop (based on: How far do people walk?, G Wakenshaw and N Bunn, July 2015), and will walk at a maximum of 80 metres per minute. Therefore, the total journey time combining bus and walking is 30 minutes. Frequent bus services have been defined as four or more per hour, and so the bus stop will only be included if it has four or more services going to the Glasgow urban core in the hour. This methodology is likely to provide an optimistic estimate due to real-time data not being available, and street layout not allowing for the whole buffer zone to be easily accessible
  • 29 This assumes scheduled buses mostly run on time. Evidence from the Greater Manchester and West Midlands urban areas suggest that this is a conservative estimate. See, for example: Brandily P et al (2023), A Tale of Two Cities, London: Resolution Foundation
  • 30 Assuming scheduled buses mostly run on time. Evidence from Greater Manchester and West Midlands urban area suggest that this is a conservative estimate. See, for example: Brandily P et al (2023), A Tale of Two Cities, London: Resolution Foundation
  • 31 Area is first based on how far you can travel from the urban core using rail within 30 minutes, using Network Rail timetable data, with a walking buffer. Walking speed is assumed to be 80 metres per minute, and limited to 800 metres (How far do people walk?, G Wakenshaw and N Bunn, July 2015). If an individual were to use a bus as part of the journey, a five-minute buffer is added to change transport modes. All the bus stops users change at are within a 250-metre radius of the train station. Using timetable data from the UK Bus Open Data Service, it is calculated how far the individual would be able to get by bus in the remaining 30 minutes. A walking buffer is also applied if the user is to alight from the bus before the 30 minutes is complete
  • 32 Cited in: Case for Change (Final): Glasgow’s Transport Strategy 2021-31, Glasgow City Council, June 2021. For further details, see: https://www.glasgow.gov.uk/CHttpHandler.ashx?id=53543&p=0
  • 33 See, for example: https://www.nhsggc.scot/downloads/directions-to-the-queen-elizabeth-university-hospital-map/