07Conclusions and implications

Londoners did increasingly escape to the country during the pandemic. But there are a number of things to note:

  1. The increase in outflows was relatively small. Given there was no large increase in the availability of houses elsewhere in the country this should be no great surprise.
  2. The increase was broadly an amplification of existing trends, both in terms of the demographics leaving and their destinations. London has for many years lost population to the rest of England and Wales, with the difference between births and deaths and international migration driving the growth of the Capital’s population.
  3. There doesn’t seem to have been a permanent change. The reversal of pandemic changes across London in the most recent internal migration data, and the average private rent data since, suggests that the appeal of quitting London diminished as it reopened, pandemic restrictions eased, and professionals were required to spend at least part of the week in the office. The question now is whether in the coming years population growth will ‘overshoot’ to compensate for the increased outflows during the pandemic.

If this is to be a short-term blip rather than a longer-term change in the trajectory of London’s population then this has important implications for investment in the Capital. The above rental price data underlines the relationship between supply and demand in determining housing costs, and ultimately, the pandemic has not changed either. London’s population is set to continue to rise, and the rate of building must increase if housing affordability is to be moderated in the coming years.

London’s return to the norm will also mean that future investment in the transport system and other civil infrastructure will be necessary. History shows that projects like Crossrail II and the Bakerloo Line extension will take many years to be agreed and delivered. Misguided understandings of the impact of the pandemic on the Capital should not add further delays to the timelines of delivering such investments, as this will only compound the existing problems that London faces.