Place over politics: What polling tells us about how successful devolution has been to date

In anticipation of the mayoral elections, Centre for Cities has polled people across the largest mayoral areas. Explore our findings in this briefing.

Briefing published on 25 March 2024 by Audrey-Frédérique Lavoie and Paul Swinney

In just over 5 weeks’ time people in 10 different areas will go to the polls to vote for a mayor. In anticipation of this, Centre for Cities has polled people across the largest mayoral areas to find out their knowledge of the mayoral institution and what this tells us about how successful devolution has been to date. This is what it found.

Mayors are much more recognisable than other prominent local politicians

More than three quarters of people polled could name their mayor. Sadiq Khan was most recognisable, with 88 per cent of people naming him. Andy Burnham was close behind at 83 per cent (see Figure 1).

While there is variation across the other mayors, respondents in every single area were more likely to name check the mayor than their local council leader (on average 20 per cent of people could do the latter). Being more visible and accountable was one of the benefits put forward for mayoral-led devolution. These results suggest that this benefit has come to pass.

Figure 1: Mayors are more recognisable than other local politicians

Questions:

Who is the current Mayor of [your mayoral area]?

Who is the current MP in your area?

Who is the current leader of your local council?

One of the reasons for the lower recognition in the Liverpool City Region may be because of a degree of confusion between the different levels of leadership. Unlike the other mayoral areas, until recently Liverpool had a directly-elected local authority mayor. In the responses given both the previous holders of this post and the Lord Mayor of Liverpool were given as responses.

To account for this Centre for Cities ran a further poll asking people to name the ‘metro mayor of Liverpool City Region’ rather than just the ‘mayor’. Recognition increased, with 54 per cent of residents identifying their Metro Mayor, up from 43 per cent, bringing it more into line with other city regions. The other names continued to be given as answers though, suggesting more needs to be done to differentiate the different levels of governance.

Transport policies have most cut through

Perhaps unsurprisingly many fewer people could name specific policies that the mayors had put in place. But when they could name a policy, it was most likely to be a transport-related one. In London ULEZ was the most named policy – 35 per cent of respondents did so, by far the most named policy in the survey (see Figure 2). The launch of the Bee Network in Greater Manchester was cited many times, as were £2 bus fare caps in Liverpool City Region, Greater Manchester and West Yorkshire.  Meanwhile taking control of the airport was by far Ben Houchen’s most recognised policy in Tees Valley.

Figure 2: Transport-related policies were the most identifiable policies in mayoralties

Question:

Can you name one of the policies the current Mayor has introduced?

Candidate quality is relatively more important than the colour of the rosette

Place trumps politics, with people more likely to vote for the candidate than their party in a mayoral election than the general election. Figure 3 shows that half of people say they would vote for the candidate over party in the mayoral election compared to 34 per cent in the general election.

Figure 3: People say they are more likely to vote for the candidate than the party in a mayoral election than the general election

Questions:

In the Mayoral election, what is more important in determining who you vote for?

In the General Election, what is more important in determining who you vote for?

This again is a victory for devolution. One of the anticipated benefits was that it would create a position with enough power to not be totally swayed by national politics (in the way local council elections are). Andy Burnham has also often argued that the mayor is much more about place than about party affiliation, with mayors trying to improve their place irrespective of their political affiliations. These findings back this up.

There is much support for policy power to be held at the local level

When asked at what level policy powers should be held at, for all big policy areas bar healthcare the majority of people across the mayoral areas believed they should be held at the local level (see Figure 4), and this was consistent within each mayoral area. In every case though it was the local council that respondents felt should hold these powers, rather than the mayoralty. Transport was the area where most people were likely to say it should be held by the mayor, with 28 per cent saying so, but 43 per cent saying the council should have the powers. London was the only place where this wasn’t the case: 42 per cent said the mayor should control transport, compared to 28 per cent saying the boroughs should do so.

Figure 4: People want to see policy powers held at the local level

Question:

Who do you think is better placed to make decisions relating to the following issues in your area?

This poses a challenge for the mayors. Not all powers should go to them by default, but where there is a rationale for decisions to be taken at the city-region wide level rather than the local authority level they are better placed to do so. Transport and housing are two examples. The good news then is that the mayors don’t have to convince the public of the virtues of devolution. But they have got work to do to convince them about what policies they should have control over.

There is very little awareness of the mayoralty in areas that will vote for the first time

In contrast to the high recognition of existing mayors, the ability of people to name check candidates in the East Midlands and North East mayoral areas, who will vote for a mayor for the first time on 2 May, and their awareness that the election will happen, was low. In some ways this is unsurprising given they are new positions. And it is further evidence of the visibility of existing mayors, who have been able to increase awareness. Some of this will likely follow for these areas too as the institution is established. But both areas are about to get a mayor with control over a number of policies that will affect their lives. If people know about the election and choose not to vote then that is up to them. But not voting because they weren’t aware of it isn’t a good place to be.

And so this finding is a warning. It shows that there is work to be done by the candidates themselves and the local media in both areas to raise awareness of the importance of the mayor and the election to come.

Lack of knowledge is much less of a barrier in a number of other areas (see Figure 5). Noting that intent to vote isn’t the same thing as actually doing so, almost three quarters of people in London say they will vote in May’s mayoral election (and they were most likely to know the election will be in May).  Two thirds say they will do so in Tees Valley, West Midlands and Greater Manchester. In places with lower intentions, lack of knowledge is the main reason offered as to why they won’t. This means that campaigns to boost awareness shouldn’t just be limited to the East Midlands and the North East.

Figure 5: Lack of knowledge is a main reason as to why people say they either don’t know or won’t vote in May’s mayoral election

Questions:

Will you vote in the next Mayoral election?

What are the biggest factors that will influence your decision not to vote in the Mayoral election?

Conclusions

One of the key reasons for introducing a metro mayor over other forms of local leadership was that it would create a more visible and identifiable politician both to the electorate but also to national and international audiences. These polling results suggest that this has been the case, especially in London, Greater Manchester, Tees Valley and the West Midlands. This should give national politicians and policy makers confidence that they have made the right choice in opting for the metro mayoral model for these areas.

The results also raise concerns that there is very little awareness of the creation of the mayoral position and the forthcoming election in the East Midlands and the North East, the two areas that will be voting for the position for the first time. With five weeks to go this emphasises the need to raise awareness, and in doing so the local media and the candidates themselves should not just look to discuss the candidates, but the value and power of the institution too to raise turnout and boost the mandate of whoever is the eventual winner.

Methodology

Focaldata polled a representative sample (based on age and gender) of 3,455 people eligible to vote in upcoming mayoral elections in Greater London (628), Greater Manchester (501), West Midlands (452), West Yorkshire (412), South Yorkshire (255), Tees Valley (155) and Liverpool City Region (287), and in the areas covered by the two new mayoral combined authorities in the East Midlands (365) and the North-East (390).

To get all mayoral area averages the data was further weighted to represent the relative size of the population in each mayoral area.

The survey was in the field between 26 February 2024 and 15 March 2024.

Polling data

Mayoral area Total sample Those giving the correct answer to: Who is the current Mayor of [Mayoral area]? Those giving the correct answer to: Who is the current MP in your area? Those giving the correct answer to: Who is the current leader of your local council?
London 628 552 257 117
Greater Manchester 501 415 209 117
West Midlands 452 292 202 89
West Yorkshire 412 244 193 83
South Yorkshire 255 110 132 75
Tees Valley 155 108 73 30
Liverpool City Region 287 127 125 46
East Midlands 365 38 169 78
North East 390 14 144 52

Those who could name a policy in response to: Can you name one of the policies the current Mayor has introduced?

Mayoral area Public transport LEZ Airport Other
London 48 222 0 38
Greater Manchester 133 16 0 11
West Midlands 39 2 0 8
West Yorkshire 72 1 0 7
South Yorkshire 23 0 6 1
Tees Valley 5 0 23 13
Liverpool City Region 24 1 0 2

 

 

In the Mayoral election, what is more important in determining who you vote for?

In the General Election, what is more important in determining who you vote for?

Mayoral area Candidate Party Candidate Party
London 328 300 236 392
Greater Manchester 263 238 165 336
West Midlands 241 211 170 282
West Yorkshire 212 200 118 294
South Yorkshire 119 136 75 180
Tees Valley 99 56 73 82
Liverpool City Region 139 148 91 196
East Midlands 168 197 102 263
North East 201 189 142 248

Who do you think is better placed to make decisions relating to the following issues in your area?

Mayoral area Homelessness – Mayor Homelessness – Council Homelessness – Nat Govt Homelessness – Other Transport – Mayor Transport – Council Transport – Nat Govt Transport – Other Crime – Mayor Crime – Council Crime – Nat Govt Crime – Other Housing – Mayor Housing – Council Housing – Nat Govt Housing – Other Business support – Mayor Business support – Council
London 110 285 221 13 261 161 187 19 143 168 293 23 88 348 179 13 114 219
Greater Manchester 98 282 112 9 180 217 93 11 106 198 182 15 70 338 83 9 104 218
West Midlands 61 259 120 12 112 221 109 10 82 151 191 27 59 292 85 15 115 166
West Yorkshire 38 238 115 21 98 185 112 16 53 152 183 24 31 271 94 16 65 169
South Yorkshire 32 139 69 15 57 134 58 6 38 86 116 14 23 168 57 7 44 114
Tees Valley 21 92 37 6 40 84 27 4 38 58 53 6 21 99 30 4 48 57
Liverpool City Region 29 175 71 11 60 151 67 10 42 118 107 20 23 187 69 7 49 117
East Midlands 34 217 98 16 27 228 99 11 40 155 148 22 22 255 80 8 42 184
North East 27 227 112 22 58 215 95 21 49 172 141 27 26 262 82 20 50 183

Will you vote in the next mayoral election?

Mayoral area Yes No
London 460 168
Greater Manchester 309 192
West Midlands 283 169
West Yorkshire 220 192
South Yorkshire 139 116
Tees Valley 99 56
Liverpool City Region 127 160
East Midlands 165 200
North East 188 202

What are the biggest factors that will influence your decision not to vote in the Mayoral election?

Mayoral area Distrust towards politicians Lack of knowledge Disinterest in local politics The Mayor has not power Other None of these
London 61 49 38 14 11 19
Greater Manchester 91 80 46 26 6 27
West Midlands 54 55 17 35 8 34
West Yorkshire 55 82 44 37 16 28
South Yorkshire 30 51 28 26 7 18
Tees Valley 25 33 14 10 1 4
Liverpool City Region 52 71 29 32 11 34
East Midlands 67 108 59 55 13 22
North East 67 99 50 34 9 25

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