In anticipation of the mayoral elections, Centre for Cities has polled people across the largest mayoral areas. Explore our findings in this briefing.
In just over 5 weeks’ time people in 10 different areas will go to the polls to vote for a mayor. In anticipation of this, Centre for Cities has polled people across the largest mayoral areas to find out their knowledge of the mayoral institution and what this tells us about how successful devolution has been to date. This is what it found.
More than three quarters of people polled could name their mayor. Sadiq Khan was most recognisable, with 88 per cent of people naming him. Andy Burnham was close behind at 83 per cent (see Figure 1).
While there is variation across the other mayors, respondents in every single area were more likely to name check the mayor than their local council leader (on average 20 per cent of people could do the latter). Being more visible and accountable was one of the benefits put forward for mayoral-led devolution. These results suggest that this benefit has come to pass.
Questions:
Who is the current Mayor of [your mayoral area]?
Who is the current MP in your area?
Who is the current leader of your local council?
One of the reasons for the lower recognition in the Liverpool City Region may be because of a degree of confusion between the different levels of leadership. Unlike the other mayoral areas, until recently Liverpool had a directly-elected local authority mayor. In the responses given both the previous holders of this post and the Lord Mayor of Liverpool were given as responses.
To account for this Centre for Cities ran a further poll asking people to name the ‘metro mayor of Liverpool City Region’ rather than just the ‘mayor’. Recognition increased, with 54 per cent of residents identifying their Metro Mayor, up from 43 per cent, bringing it more into line with other city regions. The other names continued to be given as answers though, suggesting more needs to be done to differentiate the different levels of governance.
Perhaps unsurprisingly many fewer people could name specific policies that the mayors had put in place. But when they could name a policy, it was most likely to be a transport-related one. In London ULEZ was the most named policy – 35 per cent of respondents did so, by far the most named policy in the survey (see Figure 2). The launch of the Bee Network in Greater Manchester was cited many times, as were £2 bus fare caps in Liverpool City Region, Greater Manchester and West Yorkshire. Meanwhile taking control of the airport was by far Ben Houchen’s most recognised policy in Tees Valley.
Question:
Can you name one of the policies the current Mayor has introduced?
Place trumps politics, with people more likely to vote for the candidate than their party in a mayoral election than the general election. Figure 3 shows that half of people say they would vote for the candidate over party in the mayoral election compared to 34 per cent in the general election.
Questions:
In the Mayoral election, what is more important in determining who you vote for?
In the General Election, what is more important in determining who you vote for?
This again is a victory for devolution. One of the anticipated benefits was that it would create a position with enough power to not be totally swayed by national politics (in the way local council elections are). Andy Burnham has also often argued that the mayor is much more about place than about party affiliation, with mayors trying to improve their place irrespective of their political affiliations. These findings back this up.
When asked at what level policy powers should be held at, for all big policy areas bar healthcare the majority of people across the mayoral areas believed they should be held at the local level (see Figure 4), and this was consistent within each mayoral area. In every case though it was the local council that respondents felt should hold these powers, rather than the mayoralty. Transport was the area where most people were likely to say it should be held by the mayor, with 28 per cent saying so, but 43 per cent saying the council should have the powers. London was the only place where this wasn’t the case: 42 per cent said the mayor should control transport, compared to 28 per cent saying the boroughs should do so.
Question:
Who do you think is better placed to make decisions relating to the following issues in your area?
This poses a challenge for the mayors. Not all powers should go to them by default, but where there is a rationale for decisions to be taken at the city-region wide level rather than the local authority level they are better placed to do so. Transport and housing are two examples. The good news then is that the mayors don’t have to convince the public of the virtues of devolution. But they have got work to do to convince them about what policies they should have control over.
In contrast to the high recognition of existing mayors, the ability of people to name check candidates in the East Midlands and North East mayoral areas, who will vote for a mayor for the first time on 2 May, and their awareness that the election will happen, was low. In some ways this is unsurprising given they are new positions. And it is further evidence of the visibility of existing mayors, who have been able to increase awareness. Some of this will likely follow for these areas too as the institution is established. But both areas are about to get a mayor with control over a number of policies that will affect their lives. If people know about the election and choose not to vote then that is up to them. But not voting because they weren’t aware of it isn’t a good place to be.
And so this finding is a warning. It shows that there is work to be done by the candidates themselves and the local media in both areas to raise awareness of the importance of the mayor and the election to come.
Lack of knowledge is much less of a barrier in a number of other areas (see Figure 5). Noting that intent to vote isn’t the same thing as actually doing so, almost three quarters of people in London say they will vote in May’s mayoral election (and they were most likely to know the election will be in May). Two thirds say they will do so in Tees Valley, West Midlands and Greater Manchester. In places with lower intentions, lack of knowledge is the main reason offered as to why they won’t. This means that campaigns to boost awareness shouldn’t just be limited to the East Midlands and the North East.
Questions:
Will you vote in the next Mayoral election?
What are the biggest factors that will influence your decision not to vote in the Mayoral election?
One of the key reasons for introducing a metro mayor over other forms of local leadership was that it would create a more visible and identifiable politician both to the electorate but also to national and international audiences. These polling results suggest that this has been the case, especially in London, Greater Manchester, Tees Valley and the West Midlands. This should give national politicians and policy makers confidence that they have made the right choice in opting for the metro mayoral model for these areas.
The results also raise concerns that there is very little awareness of the creation of the mayoral position and the forthcoming election in the East Midlands and the North East, the two areas that will be voting for the position for the first time. With five weeks to go this emphasises the need to raise awareness, and in doing so the local media and the candidates themselves should not just look to discuss the candidates, but the value and power of the institution too to raise turnout and boost the mandate of whoever is the eventual winner.
Focaldata polled a representative sample (based on age and gender) of 3,455 people eligible to vote in upcoming mayoral elections in Greater London (628), Greater Manchester (501), West Midlands (452), West Yorkshire (412), South Yorkshire (255), Tees Valley (155) and Liverpool City Region (287), and in the areas covered by the two new mayoral combined authorities in the East Midlands (365) and the North-East (390).
To get all mayoral area averages the data was further weighted to represent the relative size of the population in each mayoral area.
The survey was in the field between 26 February 2024 and 15 March 2024.
Mayoral area | Total sample | Those giving the correct answer to: Who is the current Mayor of [Mayoral area]? | Those giving the correct answer to: Who is the current MP in your area? | Those giving the correct answer to: Who is the current leader of your local council? |
---|---|---|---|---|
London | 628 | 552 | 257 | 117 |
Greater Manchester | 501 | 415 | 209 | 117 |
West Midlands | 452 | 292 | 202 | 89 |
West Yorkshire | 412 | 244 | 193 | 83 |
South Yorkshire | 255 | 110 | 132 | 75 |
Tees Valley | 155 | 108 | 73 | 30 |
Liverpool City Region | 287 | 127 | 125 | 46 |
East Midlands | 365 | 38 | 169 | 78 |
North East | 390 | 14 | 144 | 52 |
Mayoral area | Public transport | LEZ | Airport | Other |
---|---|---|---|---|
London | 48 | 222 | 0 | 38 |
Greater Manchester | 133 | 16 | 0 | 11 |
West Midlands | 39 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
West Yorkshire | 72 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
South Yorkshire | 23 | 0 | 6 | 1 |
Tees Valley | 5 | 0 | 23 | 13 |
Liverpool City Region | 24 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
In the Mayoral election, what is more important in determining who you vote for? |
In the General Election, what is more important in determining who you vote for? |
|||
Mayoral area | Candidate | Party | Candidate | Party |
---|---|---|---|---|
London | 328 | 300 | 236 | 392 |
Greater Manchester | 263 | 238 | 165 | 336 |
West Midlands | 241 | 211 | 170 | 282 |
West Yorkshire | 212 | 200 | 118 | 294 |
South Yorkshire | 119 | 136 | 75 | 180 |
Tees Valley | 99 | 56 | 73 | 82 |
Liverpool City Region | 139 | 148 | 91 | 196 |
East Midlands | 168 | 197 | 102 | 263 |
North East | 201 | 189 | 142 | 248 |
Mayoral area | Homelessness – Mayor | Homelessness – Council | Homelessness – Nat Govt | Homelessness – Other | Transport – Mayor | Transport – Council | Transport – Nat Govt | Transport – Other | Crime – Mayor | Crime – Council | Crime – Nat Govt | Crime – Other | Housing – Mayor | Housing – Council | Housing – Nat Govt | Housing – Other | Business support – Mayor | Business support – Council |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
London | 110 | 285 | 221 | 13 | 261 | 161 | 187 | 19 | 143 | 168 | 293 | 23 | 88 | 348 | 179 | 13 | 114 | 219 |
Greater Manchester | 98 | 282 | 112 | 9 | 180 | 217 | 93 | 11 | 106 | 198 | 182 | 15 | 70 | 338 | 83 | 9 | 104 | 218 |
West Midlands | 61 | 259 | 120 | 12 | 112 | 221 | 109 | 10 | 82 | 151 | 191 | 27 | 59 | 292 | 85 | 15 | 115 | 166 |
West Yorkshire | 38 | 238 | 115 | 21 | 98 | 185 | 112 | 16 | 53 | 152 | 183 | 24 | 31 | 271 | 94 | 16 | 65 | 169 |
South Yorkshire | 32 | 139 | 69 | 15 | 57 | 134 | 58 | 6 | 38 | 86 | 116 | 14 | 23 | 168 | 57 | 7 | 44 | 114 |
Tees Valley | 21 | 92 | 37 | 6 | 40 | 84 | 27 | 4 | 38 | 58 | 53 | 6 | 21 | 99 | 30 | 4 | 48 | 57 |
Liverpool City Region | 29 | 175 | 71 | 11 | 60 | 151 | 67 | 10 | 42 | 118 | 107 | 20 | 23 | 187 | 69 | 7 | 49 | 117 |
East Midlands | 34 | 217 | 98 | 16 | 27 | 228 | 99 | 11 | 40 | 155 | 148 | 22 | 22 | 255 | 80 | 8 | 42 | 184 |
North East | 27 | 227 | 112 | 22 | 58 | 215 | 95 | 21 | 49 | 172 | 141 | 27 | 26 | 262 | 82 | 20 | 50 | 183 |
Mayoral area | Yes | No |
---|---|---|
London | 460 | 168 |
Greater Manchester | 309 | 192 |
West Midlands | 283 | 169 |
West Yorkshire | 220 | 192 |
South Yorkshire | 139 | 116 |
Tees Valley | 99 | 56 |
Liverpool City Region | 127 | 160 |
East Midlands | 165 | 200 |
North East | 188 | 202 |
Mayoral area | Distrust towards politicians | Lack of knowledge | Disinterest in local politics | The Mayor has not power | Other | None of these |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
London | 61 | 49 | 38 | 14 | 11 | 19 |
Greater Manchester | 91 | 80 | 46 | 26 | 6 | 27 |
West Midlands | 54 | 55 | 17 | 35 | 8 | 34 |
West Yorkshire | 55 | 82 | 44 | 37 | 16 | 28 |
South Yorkshire | 30 | 51 | 28 | 26 | 7 | 18 |
Tees Valley | 25 | 33 | 14 | 10 | 1 | 4 |
Liverpool City Region | 52 | 71 | 29 | 32 | 11 | 34 |
East Midlands | 67 | 108 | 59 | 55 | 13 | 22 |
North East | 67 | 99 | 50 | 34 | 9 | 25 |