Where next for buses after the pandemic?
Buses have demonstrated that they are the essential public transport during the pandemic. Now central government, cities and bus operators must build a compact to deliver a successful National Bus Strategy.
Buses have demonstrated that they are the essential public transport during the pandemic. Now central government, cities and bus operators must build a compact to deliver a successful National Bus Strategy.
Last week, Centre for Cities held an event with leaders from government, cities, business and the bus industry to talk about how buses and bus users have been affected by the pandemic (you can watch it at this link). Here are three reflections from that discussion and its implications:
Covid has shone a light on how important buses are to the public services and economy of cities. Even at its lowest during lockdown, around 15 per cent of bus passengers still needed to be at work with no other option (even as car parking in hospitals and the congestion and ULEZ charges were suspended to help key workers). For rail and tube, that number dropped to just 5 per cent, reflecting the fact that most people who catch the train to work can work from home or have access to a car, while bus users are often poorer and likely to not own a car. (See Figure 1).
Figure 1. Transport use levels during lockdown
Source: Department for Transport. Note that TfL bus ridership was zero
The fall in passenger numbers, meant that bus operators needed a first £167 million bailout in April to keep services running for key workers. Public subsidy has leapt from 40 per cent of bus operator revenues before Covid to potentially around 70 per cent now. Planning a core service has required operators work closely with bodies like Transport for the West Midlands. This has not been without issue – but greater public control over how public funding is used to support local transport is a step change outside of London towards the reforms envisaged in the Bus Services Act 2017.
A return to the situation where the public sector is pumping money in via different channels at different levels (concessions, bus service operator grants, subsidised services) with little co-ordination over the outcomes all this public funding creates for bus services (not to mention how it undercuts subsidised tram and train services) would be a massive backwards step.
All parties need to use this as an opportunity to reset plans, and build a compact between central government, cities and bus operators to deliver a successful National Bus Strategy:
Central government must:
Congested cities like Manchester, Birmingham, Leeds and Bristol need to do two things within their control to access funding from the National Bus Strategy:
Bus operators must accept that the quid pro quo for more public funding and congestion charges in in cities that will improve the outlook for operators must be that there is greater competition within the sector. It cannot simply be a windfall to incumbents at the cost of cities and central government.
This crisis has shown how important buses are to cities as the only public transport option millions of people. The response of government, cities and operators has kept services running in extreme circumstances. But going back to normal would be a return to decline. All parties involved in providing better bus services need to set a clear vision to get cities moving again, and accept the trade-offs for each, and ensure buses play a growing role in the recovery.
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Jonathan Hall
The phrase ‘Public subsidy has leapt from 40 per cent of bus operator revenues before Covid to potentially around 70 per cent now’ – is there an assumption that these levels of subsidy will continue? If subsidies are withdrawn, then this may mean a reductions in services/frequencies, as commercial bus operators may find it difficult to make returns given reductions in capacity due to social distancing measures being imposed. These potential service reductions could impact those in society who rely on the bus, eg those without access to a car? And could influence future levels of accessibility in towns/cities? Also any future bus strategy should address the fact as to why people travel by bus – ie transport is a derived demand, they travel by bus to access certain activities such as work, leisure etc, and do not usually travel for travel’s sake. Given that pre covid-19 key population groups which were captive bus travellers eg workers, students, over 65’s, these groups now find that they do not need to travel by bus as often eg because of working from home, universities now doing online courses, over 70’s now shielding etc. So surely any future bus strategy should address the reasons as to why people are not travelling by bus, and suggest measures to increase bus usage eg ensuring that members of the public feel safe when travelling by bus, trying to get their confidence back, encouraging more people to work from offices in towns/city centres, re-opening of cultural facilities.
Jonathan Hall
‘Level up the current £2.5 billion in public support for bus services to £3.2 billion over the next Spending Review. An extra £700m a year would match the annual subsidy London now provides to its bus services and allow cities outside of the capital to build up a service that can attract passengers’ – this comment assumes that current funding streams to support bus services will continue? What if this is not the case? Will this lead to cuts in bus services by commercial operators, as ridership levels are still below levels achieved pre-lockdown? Also in the new era, it may be difficult for commercial bus operators to achieve returns on some routes, given reduced capacity due to social distancing measures being imposed? So we could see at risk population groups suffer eg those without access to a car? Surely one of the aims of a bus strategy must be to encourage people to get back to travelling on the bus, by making them safer? Or at least give them a reason to travel by bus eg by travelling to work in an office, rather than work from home?
judie collins
don;t think Greater Manchester will be having a congestion charge after last time
Richard Jones
Having used buses in The West Midlands Country throughout the pandemic for hospital treatment I see no evidence of passengers returning to use bus services. Most services I use are virtually empty despite West Midlands Travel Limited & Diamond Bus Limited running now a virtually normal service. It is very worrying for the long term viability of the buses despite the hugely sucessfull model for city bus use that exists in the West Midlands.