The Prime Minister’s adult skills announcements are a welcome step to support people adapt to the changing labour market while helping places ‘level up’ – the next step should be investment in job creation.
Speaking at a college in Exeter, the Prime Minister has yesterday unveiled a set of new initiatives – a ‘lifetime skills guarantee’ – aimed at supporting adults upskill and retrain to adapt to the changing world of work. The announcements come less than a week after Chancellor Sunak admitted he ‘couldn’t save every job’ in this second phase of the pandemic as the Government prepares to unwind the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme.
The package set out by Johnson is based on the assumption that Covid-19 is accelerating structural changes in the labour market, making it harder for those who have already left compulsory education to find a job if they are made redundant. It includes further incentives for small and medium sized businesses to take on apprentices, an expansion of the online Skills Toolkit as well as more radical changes such as a return to free access to fully funded college courses for all adults in England without A-level qualifications or equivalent as recommended in the Augar Review.
While these changes will apply in a similar way everywhere in England, they have the potential to bring the greatest benefits in those parts of the country where fewer people already have A-level or higher-level qualifications (see table and map below). This includes many large cities and towns in the North and Midlands: in Bradford, Mansfield and Burnley for example, more than half of 25-64 years old could benefit from this new initiative. Southern cities and towns like Basildon and Southend also have large shares of population with lower-level qualifications. In contrast, low qualifications are much less of a challenge in Cambridge, Oxford and Brighton.
Figure 1: Share of 25-64 year olds without A-levels or equivalent qualifications, top and bottom 10 cities and large towns
| Share of 25-64 years old without A-levels or equivalent quals, 2019 (%) | Share of 25-64 years old without A-levels or equivalent quals, 2019 (%) | ||||
| 1 | Bradford | 59.1 | 46 | Exeter | 37.3 |
| 2 | Mansfield | 56.1 | 47 | Sheffield | 37.2 |
| 3 | Burnley | 56 | 48 | Milton Keynes | 37.2 |
| 4 | Basildon | 55.4 | 49 | Bristol | 32.8 |
| 5 | Southend | 55 | 50 | London | 32.2 |
| 6 | Doncaster | 54.7 | 51 | Reading | 31.1 |
| 7 | Luton | 54.3 | 52 | York | 30 |
| 8 | Hull | 53.8 | 53 | Brighton | 25.8 |
| 9 | Wakefield | 53.7 | 54 | Oxford | 24.8 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 52.8 | 55 | Cambridge | 22.1 |
Source: ONS, Annual Population Survey, 2019. Calculations are based on the assumption that all those who currently do not have a NVQ3+ qualifications could qualify for the scheme, including those in the ‘NVQ other’ category and those with ‘trade qualifications’.
Figure 2: Share of 25-64 year olds without A-levels or equivalent qualifications
Source: ONS, Annual Population Survey, 2019. Calculations are based on the assumption that all those who currently do not have a NVQ3+ qualifications could qualify for the scheme, including those in the ‘NVQ other’ category and those with ‘trade qualifications’.
Skills are a key determinant for the success of people and places, meaning yesterday’s announcement is the single most important announcement the Government has made so far in terms of its ‘levelling-up’ agenda. By looking at the relationship between the share of people that could benefit from free college courses and the claimant count rate of a place, it is clear that the scheme has the potential to benefit the most those places that currently have the largest numbers of people claiming unemployment related benefits.
Figure 3: Share of people that could benefit from free college courses and claimant count rate
Source: ONS, Annual Population Survey, 2019, Claimant count data, August 2020, population estimates, 2019. Calculations are based on the assumption that all those who currently do not have a NVQ3+ qualifications could qualify for the scheme, including those in the ‘NVQ other’ category and those with ‘trade qualifications’.
All in all, yesterday’s announcements mark a welcome new chapter for adult education. To turn this initiative into a success, this ‘lifetime skills guarantee’ should sit alongside initiatives aimed at improving take-up of training and creating jobs. Research shows, for example, that the cost of training is only one of the barriers preventing people to participate in adult education – maintenance costs, as well as time constraints and lack of confidence all play against lifelong learning.
At the same time, while improving skills does definitely increase chances to be in employment, it is also essential to create new job opportunities, especially in places with weaker economies. The Government could do so by creating a number of opportunities in sectors where there is currently high need, such as education and social care, as well as creating jobs serving long-term manifesto goals such as in retrofitting and flood prevention.
Lastly, it is important to note that the effects of this ‘lifetime skills guarantee’ will only be visible in the medium to longer term. As we wait to reap the fruits of this policy, we also have to think about ways in which we can support unemployed people now as we go through the winter.
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