Alongside the metro mayor elections in England, last week also saw elections to the devolved parliaments in Scotland and Wales. The incumbent Scottish National Party and Welsh Labour were both re-elected and will lead any governments that are due to be formed.
While the debate has focused on what this means for devolution and the future of the United Kingdom, the policy implications of their manifestos have received less attention in the UK-wide media. Cities received little attention in both, and while both parties are ostensibly pro-devolution from Westminster, the commitments indicate further centralisation of power within Scotland and Wales, with some mandatory policies potentially having negative effects for cities. Politicians in Scotland and Wales should take note of the popularity of the institution of the English metro mayors, and embark on a wave of urban devolution.
Cities drive the economies of Scotland and Wales
Cities matter for the Scottish and Welsh economies for the same reason that they do all over the world. They are urban labour markets, and as concentration of jobs and activity drive local and national economic growth. This is why in 2019 before the pandemic, Scotland’s cities had 35 per cent of its people, but 44 per cent of its private sector jobs, and Welsh cities had 31 per cent of the population and 36 per cent of all private jobs. Supporting these cities is therefore essential for helping the wider economies of the devolved nations.
Yet neither the SNP nor Welsh Labour manifestos talked much about cities
Looking through the manifestos, both documents give lots of attention to issues which do have consequences for cities. On measures to increase housing supply, the SNP have promised to deliver 100,000 affordable homes by 2032, and Welsh Labour have committed to 20,000 new, low carbon social homes for rent in Wales. Both parties are pledging a welcome boost in apprenticeships and other forms of non-university further education. Welsh Labour has promised to follow World Health Organization standards on air pollution in a new Clean Air Act for Wales, and the SNP has proposed a National Care Service to share some of the burden currently faced by local authority budgets.
Yet cities themselves received little attention in the manifestos. City Growth Deals, similar to those arranged in England, are referred to in both documents but do not mention the shared responsibility with the UK Government for delivering them. However, the SNP manifesto only mentioned “urban” Scotland as a contrast to rural Scotland, while the Welsh Labour manifesto did not use the word “urban” at all. The word “mayor” is not mentioned in either.
The manifestos do recognise differences between places within Scotland and Wales – the SNP for instance have a series of short separate regional manifestos. But specifically urban issues are missing, even though specific rural issues are addressed. The SNP have for example proposed an ‘Islands Bond’, offering bonds of up to £50,000 to 100 young people who move to depopulating islands, and are committing to setting up more mobile phone masts in remote rural and island communities.
The devolved nations are highly centralised
There is nothing wrong with proposing specific rural policies for rural areas, and these were elections to the devolved parliaments – perhaps there will be more discussion of local issues in the local elections next year. But the lack of urban devolution means that cities in Wales and Scotland have less power to lead on policy themselves after the lack of attention in the national manifestos.
Some manifesto promises will be bad for urban areas – but cities won’t be able to avoid them
The continued centralisation of Wales and Scotland does though create problems for cities from these manifestos’ promises. For example, the Welsh Labour manifesto sets a target of 30 per cent of work to be conducted remotely, specifically to reduce commuting. Even leaving aside the estimates of Centre for Cities that only 15-20 per cent of jobs in Cardiff, Newport, and Swansea in 2020 could be done remotely, a fall in commuting would have knock-on-costs for those jobs which depend on office commuters, such as those in restaurants, bars, and high street shops.
Similarly, the SNP manifesto promises a ‘Community Wealth Building Act’ that will require local authorities to spend in their local communities through increased mandatory local procurement by councils. Centre for Cities has discussed this local protectionism before – it is a beggar-thy-neighbour policy which makes places richer by making nearby places poorer. If every local authority does local procurement, nobody is better off, and everybody is a little poorer. Yet the centralised governance structures of Scotland will force cities to embark on this, even if they want to follow evidence-backed policy and avoid it.
Wales and Scotland should create their own metro mayors
This institutional design does not lend itself to good urban policy or local democracy, and stands in contrast to the success of the metro mayors in England. Many English cities have now achieved more power with the metro mayors than their counterparts in Wales and Scotland, and are using it to make their cities better. Initiatives such as bus franchising, building a UCAS for apprenticeships, and mayors buying airports have all been accomplished by metro mayors since 2017, and the recent elections promise more problem solving and local leadership.
Yet though the metro mayors are taking on more responsibility and banging the drum for their cities in England, this same process is not playing out in Scotland or Wales. This is a shame, as metro mayoralties are popular institutions – 83 per cent of voters with them want to see further devolution to them. They would likely be popular in Scotland and Wales too.
With urban policy struggling to make headway in Scotland and Wales, it is time for their cities to look to cities in England – and not Westminster – as inspiration. Metro mayors should be considered (or perhaps metro provosts in Scotland) to further advance devolution in the devolved nations. The mayors as institutions have already changed English politics for the better and reduced the dominance of the capital over the rest of the country. It is within the power of the re-elected devolved governments to do the same, and improve their cities too.
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