After a small decline from May to June, unemployment claims are now back on the rise everywhere in the country.
The headline finding from today’s release of the latest labour market figures from the Office for National Statistics reveals the biggest fall in employment in over a decade. Compared to March, there are 730,000 fewer people in employment across the country – the last time a similar fall was recorded was in 2009.
While this data isn’t yet available at the local level, claimant data – a measure released monthly of the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits – gives a sense of how this might vary across the country.
Nationally, the claimant count rate increased slightly compared to last month (+0.2 percentage points). As of July 2020, there are approximately 2.7 million people in the UK claiming unemployment related benefits – a claimant count rate of 6.4 per cent. While the monthly increase is relatively small, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits has more than doubled since March.
All cities saw an increase in claimant counts compared to last month. While in between May and June the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits remained stable or slightly decreased in most places, numbers are now picking up once again. The monthly increase from June to July ranged from less than +0.1 percentage points in Derby, Mansfield and Warrington to +0.4 percentage points in Aberdeen, Slough and Glasgow.
Table 1. Top and bottom 10 cities for percentage point increase in claimant counts between June and July 2020
Rank | City | Percentage point change in claimant counts in the past month (Jun-Jul 2020) | Rank | City | Percentage point change in claimant counts in the past month (Jun-Jul 2020) |
1 | Aberdeen | 0.4 | 54 | Preston | 0.1 |
2 | Slough | 0.4 | 55 | Swindon | 0.1 |
3 | Glasgow | 0.4 | 56 | Sunderland | 0.1 |
4 | Norwich | 0.4 | 57 | Blackburn | 0.1 |
5 | Brighton | 0.3 | 58 | Stoke | 0.1 |
6 | Dundee | 0.3 | 59 | Belfast | 0.1 |
7 | Luton | 0.3 | 60 | Birkenhead | 0.1 |
8 | Cardiff | 0.3 | 61 | Warrington | 0.1 |
9 | Chatham | 0.3 | 62 | Mansfield | 0.1 |
10 | Gloucester | 0.3 | 63 | Derby | 0.1 |
Source: ONS, Claimant Count June and July 2020. ONS, Population Estimates 2019
Overall, the places that have seen the largest increases in claimant counts since the beginning of the crisis remain largely unchanged compared to last month. The cities that have seen the biggest rises continue to be Luton (+5.2 percentage points compared to March), Slough (+5.1) and Blackpool (+4.6). The increase in these places is twice as large as in the places that have experienced the smallest rises since March, which continue to be York, (+2.3), Cambridge (+2.4) and Exeter (+2.5).
Table 2. Top and bottom 10 cities for percentage point increase in claimant counts since March 2020
Rank | City | Percentage point change in claimant counts, Mar-Jul 2020 | Rank | City | Percentage point change in claimant counts, Mar-Jul 2020 |
1 | Luton | 5.2 | 54 | Aberdeen | 3 |
2 | Slough | 5.1 | 55 | Belfast | 3 |
3 | Blackpool | 4.6 | 56 | Reading | 2.9 |
4 | London | 4.5 | 57 | Preston | 2.8 |
5 | Crawley | 4.4 | 58 | Warrington | 2.7 |
6 | Northampton | 4.3 | 59 | Swansea | 2.6 |
7 | Bradford | 4.2 | 60 | Oxford | 2.5 |
8 | Peterborough | 4 | 61 | Exeter | 2.5 |
9 | Liverpool | 4 | 62 | Cambridge | 2.4 |
10 | Brighton | 3.9 | 63 | York | 2.3 |
Source: ONS, Claimant Count March and July 2020. ONS, Population Estimates 2019
The overall static picture also remains largely unchanged, with weaker city economies in the North and Midlands more likely to have higher claimant count rates than stronger city economies in the South East. Blackpool, Hull and Birmingham are still the top three places, with claimant count rates approaching 10 per cent as a share of the working age population. This has been very much the case since May. In contrast, York, Cambridge and Exeter have the lowest claimant count rates, at approximately 4 per cent.
Table 3. Claimant count rate, July 2020
Rank | City | Claimant count rate, Jul 2020 (%) | Rank | City | Claimant count rate, Jul 2020 (%) |
1 | Blackpool | 10 | 54 | Preston | 5.6 |
2 | Hull | 9.8 | 55 | Bristol | 5.5 |
3 | Birmingham | 9.6 | 56 | Warrington | 5.3 |
4 | Bradford | 9.3 | 57 | Edinburgh | 5.1 |
5 | Liverpool | 8.7 | 58 | Reading | 4.9 |
6 | Luton | 8.6 | 59 | Aldershot | 4.5 |
7 | Blackburn | 8.3 | 60 | Oxford | 4.5 |
8 | Sunderland | 8.3 | 61 | Exeter | 4.2 |
9 | Middlesbrough | 8.2 | 62 | Cambridge | 4.1 |
10 | Slough | 8.1 | 63 | York | 3.6 |
Figure 1. Claimant count rate, July 2020
Source: ONS, Claimant Count July 2020. ONS, Population Estimates 2019
Source: ONS, Claimant Count July 2020. ONS, Population Estimates 2019
Lastly, the number of young people claiming unemployment related benefits continues to rise, especially in places with weaker economies. There are approximately 537,000 young people (16-24 years old) claiming unemployment benefits across the country, up by 0.3 percentage points compared to June and by 4.2 percentage points since March. In 10 cities and large towns, the claimant count rate for young people is now above 10 per cent, and in Blackpool – the city with the highest claimant count for young people, it is now approaching 13 per cent.
Table 4. Top and bottom 10 cities for young people (16-24 years old) claimant count rate
Rank | City | Young people claimant count rate, Jul 2020 | Rank | City | Young people claimant count rate, Jul 2020 |
1 | Blackpool | 12.6 | 54 | Cardiff | 5.5 |
2 | Bradford | 11.3 | 55 | Southampton | 5.5 |
3 | Sunderland | 11 | 56 | Coventry | 5.5 |
4 | Doncaster | 11 | 57 | Bristol | 5.5 |
5 | Peterborough | 10.7 | 58 | Reading | 5.2 |
6 | Burnley | 10.6 | 59 | Edinburgh | 5.1 |
7 | Hull | 10.6 | 60 | York | 3.2 |
8 | Middlesbrough | 10.5 | 61 | Exeter | 3.1 |
9 | Newport | 10.2 | 62 | Oxford | 2.5 |
10 | Birmingham | 10.1 | 63 | Cambridge | 2.5 |
Source: ONS, Claimant Count July 2020. ONS, Population Estimates 2019
While the claimant count figures increased slightly compared to last month, it is very likely the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme is still protecting many people from becoming unemployed. It is too early to assess how the phasing out of the scheme will affect people’s job opportunities. Watch this space in the coming months for more analysis.
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