Middle class and Southern voters are switching parties too
These Labour gains in affluent and historically Conservative suburban areas hint at a larger national political realignment in England, one mirroring recent Conservative gains in working class and historically Labour places. Yet while the latter has already had a big political impact, the former is just starting to change English politics.
While Labour made a small gain in Bristol, its share of the second-round vote shot up in Bath and North East Somerset from 39 per cent in 2017 to 56 per cent in 2017. Likewise, in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, Labour made so many gains it was able to overtake the Liberal Democrats and make it into the second round and ultimately win the mayoralty – but these gains for Labour were made in Peterborough and the affluent rural authorities, while Labour barely improved on the Liberal Democrat performance in Cambridge and the surrounding South Cambridgeshire.
We can also see both sides of this realignment under the surface of the metro mayors who were re-elected in the supposed “Red Wall”. Andy Burnham’s leads in Wigan and Oldham actually narrowed compared to 2017, but were more than compensated for by bigger gains in both central Manchester and especially the historically weak suburban territory for Labour in Trafford and Stockport. Likewise, although Andy Street managed to flip Wolverhampton with a 7 per cent gain and advance within Birmingham, he also saw a small but noticeable reversal in the Tory stronghold of Solihull, losing 3 per cent of the second round’s vote share.
Popular mayors can buck national trends
This national realignment means more places are up for grabs – if mayors are able to earn it. Strong local candidates such as Andy Street and Ben Houchen are able to punch above their party’s weight, even when the party is performing well nationally, because the metro mayoralties as institutions give them the opportunity to deliver. This matters especially as both parties’ heartlands become more competitive due to national trends which the parties cannot avoid.
First past the post elections for mayors will make this harder and should be scrapped
The Home Office’s proposal to replace the current supplementary vote system, which has a second round for the top two candidates if no candidate reaches 50 per cent of the vote, with first past the post will though weaken this. The effect will be to strengthen local parties in places where they are already strong, and make breakthroughs with strong candidates more difficult as safe mayors become safer. Local elections will more closely reflect voters’ beliefs about national rather than local politics.
This would be a step backwards for the devolution agenda. It would hamper MHCLG’s efforts to build up the responsibility and capacity of local government for taking tough decisions, as it will reduce the electoral incentive for candidates to win on good ideas and a promise to deliver rather than party identity. Introducing first past the post at the metro mayor level would also entrench party fiefdoms rather than problem solving within local government, and do little to slow or stop the changes in voter behaviour and identity taking place at the national level.
Voters want the metro mayors to take more tough decisions and more responsibility for fixing local problems. The Government should scrap the plans to abolish the supplementary vote if they want this too.
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Jim FORD
These results suggest that the Metro Mayoral devolution agenda is popular with the electorate and should be complimented by directly electing assemblies as in London and the devolved nations to enable the mayoralities to have greater devolved budgets, for which the local power of scrutiny would be important.
James Stevens
Very helpful analysis of the voting patterns of the people by local authority in the metro mayoral elections. Many thanks.