This morning’s headline labour market statistics will be welcome news for the Government:
- Employment now stands at 71.%; an increase of 0.1 on the last quarter and 0.9 on last year;
- Unemployment has fallen to 2.51 million or 7.8%; a decrease of 0.2 on the last quarter and 0.5 on last year;
- The claimant count is also down 3,000 from last quarter and 20,900 on last year to 1.58 million;
- And while public sector employment is contracting (- 24,000 over last quarter), private sector employment is rising (+ 65,000 over last quarter).
The quarterly figures are being heralded as the best in a decade. For many this is an overstatement though; the employment rate is still well below the 2008 peak. Figures on underemployment don’t look so impressive either. The latest statistics tell us:
- Part-time work has risen by 3.7% over the last year (and was static over the last quarter);
- Full-time work has risen by just 1% the last year (and by 0.2% over the last quarter).
- Real wages are 6.2% lower than they were in 2009;
- The number of people in employment wanting to work more hours has risen by 1 million since the start of the economic downturn in 2008 to 3.05 million.
The Census provides us with a longer term view of what’s been happening with full-time and part-time work. It allows us to look at change in hours worked at a relatively detailed geographic level over the last decade.
At national level there has been a 4.4% point rise in people working part-time (less than 31 hours) between 2001 and 2011. Part-time work increased in all cities by at least 2.3% points. In Leicester 6.9% more people were working part-time hours in 2011 than in 2001.
What’s behind this increase? Is it simply that more women (who have a much higher propensity to work part-time) have entered the labour market?
The figures suggest otherwise. The proportion of males working part-time has risen by 6% points, while the proportion of females working part-time has risen by less than 2% points (and a small minority of cities have seen a fall).
As the map shows, part-time working amongst the male workforce has increased substantially in some cities: the proportion of men working part-time has risen by more than 10% points in Bradford and Luton.
In the absence of more detailed time-series data, it is difficult to assess the extent to which these changes are driven by the recession. It does serve as an important reminder though that unemployment is only part of the story.
Change in part-time working amongst the male workforce by city, 2001 to 2011
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