With this set of local elections testing Labour’s ability to win back seats in towns and cities in the Red Wall and beyond, we’ve picked out some of the key urban contests to have on your radar as voters head to the polls on 4 May.
On 4 May voters will head to the polls in the biggest round of local council elections seen in England since 2019. A total of 40 million people will be able to choose new councillors, with over 8,000 seats being contested across 230 councils. All of this, set against a past year of unprecedented political chaos and a looming general election, along with boundary changes and the introduction of voter ID, proves to make for a variety of interesting contests between the political parties.
To give an impression of how much the national political backdrop has changed: back in 2019, Prime Minister Theresa May was leading a Conservative party fragmented over the proposed EU withdrawal agreement.
Dissatisfaction with national parties was clear and voters deserted traditional allegiances at the ballot box. The Conservatives received their worst results since 1995, although they retained control of the LGA as the largest party in local government. Labour performed worse than any opposition party in history, foreshadowing the Red Wall collapse in the general election later that year. The main winners were the Liberal Democrats, as well as hyper-local and Independent candidates.
Since these seats were last contested, the country has left the European Union, faced a global pandemic, and is now on its fourth Prime Minister.
While local elections stand as a way for voters to express their views on hyper-local issues and the services provided by often cash-strapped local governments, they also serve as the clearest measure of public opinion on the Government of the day.
This may be the last time – or the penultimate time – voters go to the polls ahead of a general election, so these results will be viewed as a verdict on national party performance, a test of Labour’s huge poll lead over the Conservatives, and a forecast of the make-up of the next Westminster Government.
The Conservatives are seen to be under pressure from all sides, defending four in 10 vacancies and overall control of 85 councils, with recent predictions suggesting the Conservatives could lose upwards of 1,000 seats. Meanwhile there are predictions of Labour gaining 700 seats – which would give the party control of the LGA – and additional wins for the Lib Dems and Independents.
It will be the first time voters in England will have to show photographic ID before casting their vote. When a similar system was introduced in Northern Ireland in 2003, the first round of elections saw an almost five-point drop in expected turnout. Combined with timing before the Coronation long weekend, this unique mix of factors makes the results more unpredictable.
These elections will test Labour’s ability to win back seats in towns and cities in the Red Wall and beyond. Taking this, combined with the ability of the Lib Dems to make gains in true blue, largely rural areas, and opportunity for the Greens, we’ve picked out some of the most interesting and potentially significant urban contests to have on your radar, where we are likely to see new political administrations formed.
The symbolic location of Labour’s local election launch, Swindon Borough Council has been under Conservative control since 2004. A third of seats are up, but with 12 of them being Conservative, a swing to Labour proves possible. Swindon represents a key target for Labour and, on a national level, Labour’s Heidi Alexander is looking to replace Tory Robert Buckland MP’s fairly slim majority in South Swindon at the next general election. A win here would represent a significant shift in voter opinion for this town in the southwest.
Plymouth’s administration has been a scene of political turbulence and a constant battleground between Labour and Conservative for some time. No party has overall control after several councillors defected and others had the party whip withdrawn. Recent weeks have seen the Conservative Leader standing down ahead of a no confidence vote after he approved the felling of more than 100 trees as part of a regeneration scheme.
Labour has now, by default, become the largest party and needs four more seats to gain total control. Results here may depend on whether local or national issues take precedence in voter’s minds.
All seats are up for election at Stoke-on-Trent City Council, a former Labour industrial heartland that has faced political disruption in recent years. The City Council is currently run by a Conservative minority administration and has switched between Labour and No Overall Control in recent times, with an influx of Independent candidates adding further dimensions to the political battleground. On a national level, all three of its Westminster constituencies are now represented by Conservative MPs. This will be a key barometer gauging the positions of Labour and the Tories in relation to the Red Wall.
Pundits are calling Dartford Borough Council one to watch in these elections. Despite a strong Conservative majority of 29 councillors compared to Labour’s seven and an additional six Independents, a change of mood locally has led to some predictions of a result of No Overall Control. The possibility of such a large and consistent majority being overturned would represent significant pushback against the status quo in this London border town.
Known to be a bellwether area in politics, where results are an indicator of wider trends, a knife edge race is taking place for Gravesham Borough Council. Labour has 22 seats to the Conservatives’ 21 and – with all-out elections taking place in this authority – results will be studied as a wider indicator of the two main party’s performances. Before voters head to the polls, forecasts are that the Conservatives lose ground, to Labour’s advantage.
Bolton represents a significant political battleground in the North West. On a national level, the Bolton North East constituency was taken from Labour by the Conservatives at the 2019 general election with a majority of just 378 votes, making it a key target for Labour to take back as a traditional Red Wall stronghold.
On a local level, the council currently sits under No Over Control, with a rise of localist groups having prevented the ability of one party to form a majority administration. With new boundary changes thought to be in the Labour Party’s favour, the party hopes to gain ground here.
This is a politically unique area with a pattern of minority administrations. Currently, the Greens form a minority administration and will have set their sights on turning this into a majority. So will Labour; the 2019 elections saw Labour returned as the largest party and they will be set on claiming back seats lost to defections since then.
Middleborough Council is being marked as an authority to watch to indicate Labour’s wider performance in the polls. Labour only requires a few more seats to win the council back from 2019’s No Overall Control result, which followed a period of consistent Labour control from the 1970s. Independent Mayor Andy Preston is also up for re-election, defending a vote share of 59.2% from the 2019 local elections, compared to Labour’s 22.7%.
In Liverpool, voters will go to the polls in what has been dubbed a landmark ballot for the city, as once votes are cast and the City Council’s membership is confirmed, a new governance model will come into place to replace the previous Mayoralty model. This, along with boundary changes, and following a mix of resignations, defections and scandals, makes the city’s set of elections one of the most complex in recent memory.
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