A look back at the first national lockdown as England begins a second one.
Today marks the beginning of England’s second national lockdown. This will be a big blow for high street businesses, and the people they employ, at a time they should be gearing up for Christmas. Centre for Cities’ High Streets Recovery Tracker has tracked the performance of the high street the beginning of the first lockdown, and so we can make predictions on impact of this second one on large city and town centres.
Even in the depths of a full national lockdown, the levels of footfall in various city and town centres across the country varied quite significantly. Footfall began to fall meaningfully in most places from mid-March and bottomed out in mid-April.
At its minimum, footfall in Belfast, Cardiff and Oxford was just 8 per cent of pre-lockdown levels, the lowest of all UK city centres. At the other extreme, the minimum level reached was just over a third of its pre-lockdown levels in Basildon and Birkenhead. And in Aldershot, it was 45 per cent of pre-lockdown levels.
Figure 1: Places where footfall dropped the most and the least during the first lockdown
Rank | City or town centre | Lowest level footfall dropped to in the first lockdown | Rank | City or town centre | Lowest level footfall dropped to in the first lockdown |
1 | Aldershot | 45 | 54 | Manchester | 12 |
2 | Birkenhead | 36 | 55 | London | 11 |
3 | Slough | 36 | 56 | Birmingham | 11 |
4 | Basildon | 35 | 57 | Glasgow | 11 |
5 | Burnley | 31 | 58 | Liverpool | 10 |
6 | Southend | 31 | 59 | Cambridge | 10 |
7 | Mansfield | 31 | 60 | Edinburgh | 9 |
8 | Chatham | 31 | 61 | Cardiff | 8 |
9 | Newport | 30 | 62 | Belfast | 8 |
10 | Worthing | 30 | 63 | Oxford | 8 |
Source: Locomizer (2020)
Footfall started to pick up noticeably when non-essential retail reopened in mid-June. This return towards the normal continued through the summer, supported by food and drink venues reopening in July and the Eat Out to Help Out scheme in August, and of course, warm weather the whole way through.
Seaside towns in particular recovered strongly. Peak footfall in Blackpool was 141 per cent of pre-lockdown levels, in Bournemouth it was 133 per cent and Southend 123 per cent. In contrast, large cities have notably struggled. Even at its highest this summer, footfall in Birmingham and Manchester was only just above half of its previous levels, and in London it peaked at 36 per cent of pre-lockdown.
Figure 2: Places where footfall recovered the most and the least post-lockdown
Rank | City or town centre | Highest level footfall recovered to post-lockdown | Rank | City or town centre | Highest level footfall recovered to post-lockdown |
1 | Blackpool | 141 | 54 | Newcastle | 70 |
2 | Basildon | 140 | 55 | Liverpool | 69 |
3 | Chatham | 133 | 56 | Glasgow | 68 |
4 | Bournemouth | 133 | 57 | Bristol | 67 |
5 | Birkenhead | 129 | 58 | Oxford | 64 |
6 | Southend | 123 | 59 | Cardiff | 61 |
7 | Burnley | 115 | 60 | Leeds | 61 |
8 | Doncaster | 114 | 61 | Birmingham | 56 |
9 | Telford | 112 | 62 | Manchester | 51 |
10 | Portsmouth | 111 | 63 | London | 36 |
Source: Locomizer (2020)
The timing of the recovery peak also varied significantly across places. In 17 places including Blackpool and Bournemouth, footfall peaked at the end of August. In 18 places including London and Manchester, it maintained momentum into September. In the remaining 38 places, it continued to rise in October.
The high streets that saw their footfall drop the most due to the first lockdown have also recovered the least.
The chart below shows the relationship between the minimum level footfall dropped to in the first lockdown (on the x-axis) and the level it peaked to in the recovery phase (on the y-axis). Overall, 20 out of the 63 cities studied recovered to their pre-lockdown level or higher.
The positive relationship between the two shows that the places where the impact of the lockdown was the strongest is also where it has been sustained for the longest. This means that businesses in Birmingham, Manchester and Oxford were still far away from things being ‘normal’ before today’s lockdown began. Businesses in Basildon, Birkenhead and Blackpool, on the other hand, have had more of a chance to replenish their reserves before having to shut up shop again.
Figure 3: Relationship between the drop in footfall and the extent of the recovery
Source: Locomizer (2020)
The announcement of the second lockdown comes at a time when the largest city centres in particular still haven’t recovered from the first. With Christmas being such a key time for the high street, the financial impact second lockdown is likely to be felt even more keenly than the first. The question now is whether the extended support for businesses will be enough to keep many businesses solvent until people return again.
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