Did eating out really help out?
Looking across data on footfall and sales suggests that while eating out did help out, the impact varied significantly across cities.
Looking across data on footfall and sales suggests that while eating out did help out, the impact varied significantly across cities.
In August, the Chancellor designed a novel policy idea to get people out and spending again as lockdown restrictions were lifted. The Eat Out to Help Out scheme gave a 50 per cent discount on food and drink (up to £10 per person) on Mondays to Wednesdays. And early analysis of both official data and our data suggests that it did encourage people to go out and to spend money.
To develop a deeper understanding of Eat Out To Help Out’s impact, we examined the number of card sales in cafes, restaurants and fast-food outlets and footfall in the centres of the UK’s cities and large towns across August. We compared this to the same figures for the last week of July 2020 and also August 2019, to understand the impact of the scheme and what this means in the wider context.
Number of sales was up 49 per cent and footfall in city centres was up 23 per cent on Monday to Wednesday nights in August compared to the same nights at the end of July. However, this varies significantly across the country.
Sales and footfall both increased in every city centre except for Aberdeen (where lockdown was imposed from the first week in August). Sales increased the most in Leicester, over four-fold, reflecting the easing of restrictions that were in place for the month preceding. Leicester was followed by the Welsh cities of Newport, Swansea and Cardiff, where venues were allowed to open for indoors seating from August 3 for the first time since March.
Blackburn, where additional local restrictions were in place till 20 August, was the only other city to see a drop in footfall. Cities that were already ahead in their recovery at the end of July such as Basildon, Birkenhead and Warrington had some of the smallest Eat Out To Help Out bounces.
The impact in central London, which was most affected by lockdown, was also muted – sales were up 44 per cent (less than the urban average of 49 per cent) and footfall up a mere 12 per cent on Eat Out to Help Out nights. This is likely to be because most central London office workers are remaining at home.
It is worth noting that, on average, sales increased much more than footfall. This suggests one of two things: first that the scheme nudged those who were already out and about for other reasons to grab a bite while they were there; or second that people who went out made the most of it by eating out more than they might have done without the discount. This stands true for 54 out of the 62 city centres in the analysis.
Figure 1: Cities where sales increased the most and the cities where it rose the least
| Rank | City or town centre | The largest increase in Monday to Wednesday sales compared to the last week of July (%) | Rank | City or town centre | The smallest increase in Monday to Wednesday sales compared to the last week of July (%) |
| 1 | Leicester | 434 | 62 | Aberdeen | -49 |
| 2 | Newport | 150 | 61 | Basildon | 6 |
| 3 | Swansea | 147 | 60 | Birkenhead | 7 |
| 4 | Cardiff | 146 | 59 | Dundee | 13 |
| 5 | Edinburgh | 121 | 58 | Birmingham | 13 |
| 6 | Cambridge | 93 | 57 | Portsmouth | 18 |
| 7 | Reading | 83 | 56 | Telford | 20 |
| 8 | Coventry | 82 | 55 | Gloucester | 22 |
| 9 | Peterborough | 80 | 54 | Warrington | 22 |
| 10 | Southampton | 80 | 53 | Bradford | 23 |
Source: Beauclair (2020)
Figure 2: Cities where footfall increased the most and the cities where it rose the least
| Rank | City or town centre | The largest increase in Monday to Wednesday footfall compared to the last week of July (%) | Rank | City or town centre | The smallest increase in Monday to Wednesday footfall compared to the last week of July (%) |
| 1 | Cardiff | 112 | 62 | Aberdeen | -16 |
| 2 | Swansea | 74 | 61 | Blackburn | -8 |
| 3 | Edinburgh | 72 | 60 | Aldershot | 0 |
| 4 | Oxford | 59 | 59 | Basildon | 1 |
| 5 | Brighton | 49 | 58 | Barnsley | 5 |
| 6 | Norwich | 49 | 57 | Luton | 6 |
| 7 | Exeter | 48 | 56 | Wigan | 6 |
| 8 | Peterborough | 48 | 55 | Slough | 7 |
| 9 | Cambridge | 45 | 54 | Swindon | 7 |
| 10 | Leicester | 45 | 53 | Wakefield | 7 |
Source: Locomizer (2020)
By attracting people into the city centres on Mondays to Wednesdays, the scheme evened out activity in city centres across weekdays. But there was no clear evidence of this simply resulting from people shifting their spending from later in the week. Sales also increased on weekends, albeit at a more modest 7 per cent. And Friday night remained the busiest night in city centres, for both sales and footfall.
This suggests that the scheme did go some way in improving people’s confidence and willingness to return towards normal and didn’t simply displace activity across the week.
Figure 3: Café, restaurant and fast-food sales in August 2020 vs. July 2020, by day
Source: Beauclair (2020)
The popularity of Eat Out to Help Out started strong and built up over the month. Food sales rose week on week in August by at least 10 per cent each week suggesting that the scheme tempted more and more people out as it went on.
The biggest increase, in fact, was at the end of the month – in the last week of August, sales jumped 20 per cent on the week before, perhaps because of payday.
Figure 4: Week by week increase in sales over August 2020
Source: Beauclair (2020)
Somewhat pleasantly surprising, at least for the businesses that rely on it, is the fact that despite the discount, people didn’t seem to be spending less. The 66 per cent increase in sales in all of August compared to all of July was accompanied by a 13 per cent increase in average transaction value too. So for every £1 spent in cafes, restaurants and fast-food retailers in July, £1.13 was spent in August.
Aberdeen, where the ability to eat out was restricted due to the local lockdown is the only exception to this. Patrons in every other city spent just as much or more in August then they did in July, despite the £10 discount per person.
Although the increase from July to August represents a great improvement in a relatively short space of time, sales are still a long way off being normal for the sector. Overall, sales in August 2020 were still only two-thirds of what they were in August 2019.
Yet again, this varies across the country. On one hand, Aberdeen, Burnley and London had sales that were less than half of what they were this time last year. At the other extreme, 12 cities in the UK, including the seaside destinations of Bournemouth, Brighton, Plymouth and Worthing sold more meals in August 2020 than they did in August 2019.
Figure 4: Café, restaurant and fast-food sales in August 2020 vs. August 2019, by city
Source: Beauclair (2020)
The above shows that the policy does seem to have encouraged people to come out and spend again. Regardless of whether this was in response to the financial discount or because of an increase confidence levels, tightening of Covid-19 restrictions now threatens to reverse the progress made by the scheme.
If the UK does head into lockdown 2.0 and the high streets struggle to recover again, the government may choose to intervene to support the hospitality sector. While these results suggest that a discount scheme or a voucher scheme as previously proposed by Centre for Cities could help restart what Eat Out to Help Out had begun, such support will only be a temporary relief if we do not see workers return, especially to our largest city centres.
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John Charlesworth
Excellent analysis!