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OK up to a point, Paul, but…
(i) since productivity (output per worker) tends to grow in most manufacturing sectors, employment is bound to shrink if output is constant, and will grow more slowly than output where a sector is expanding in output terms. So I suggest attention to output is important too. I know that last time I looked at the data for London, GVA/cap for manufacturing was pretty high compared with most service sectors.
(ii) lots of other problems with your approach, in my view. For example much of manufacturing is as “knowledge based” as most services. Finer grain of analysis needed. etc
Thanks Michael. We don’t have output at a city level, but as a share of national output it has declined over the last 100 years. I completely agree about the knowledge element of manufacturing. Part 2 will cover the geography of these types of jobs.
Some of the fall in manufacturing is a redefinition as companies have concentrated on core competences and industries have reshaped with IT.
People who used to be manufacturing workers in the canteen are now employed by service companies.
The last major shift (when we moved to SIC 2007) removed newspaper content creation from manufacturing (which had an effect on London).
So knowledge based functions keep being moved out of manufacturing (e.g. boutique design operations), due to company structure changes as much as real changes (not to deny those, but they are overstated).