Amid a cost of living crisis and a shifting political landscape, there is a lot at stake for the main parties on Thursday 5 May.
On Thursday, voters across the four nations will head to the polls for the 2022 local elections with almost 7,000 council seats being contested. The majority are in England (4,500 seats), including elections in all 32 London boroughs and the South Yorkshire city region electing its new Metro Mayor.
Although historically beset by low voter turnout (in 2018, only a third of voters in England went to the polls), local elections matter. They are a way for voters to express their views on the state of services provided by local government, ranging from council taxes, education, and care services, to bin collections and potholes.
They also serve as the clearest measure of public opinion on the government of the day and a proxy vote ahead of the next general election, especially with the number of seats being contested this year. Mapping by the Financial Times of local government councillors’ party affiliation from 1973 onwards showed that political parties tend to make gains at the local level before taking power in general elections.
Recent YouGov polling of voter intentions at the national level (which tends to be an accurate indicator for local elections) shows Labour remains in the lead with 39 per cent of the vote, compared to the Conservatives’ 33 per cent, the Liberal Democrats at 9 per cent and the Greens at 8 per cent.
So, how is Thursday’s vote likely to play out across the country?
Labour has tended to control councils in urban areas such as Birmingham and Newcastle, whereas the Conservatives have traditionally held smaller, more rural areas and district councils. Recent polling suggests this narrative might be re-enforced this time round, with Labour expected to make gains in cities whilst the Conservatives could hold on to towns across the country.
For the Conservative Party, these local elections will serve as the first electoral test for the Prime Minister since his 2019 election victory, particularly in the “Red Wall” constituencies in the North and Midlands. The number of Conservative votes in these places could serve as a useful barometer of the popularity of both the government and Boris Johnson.
The London boroughs will also be a key battleground for the Conservatives, particularly in Wandsworth, which the party has led since 1978 and holds a very slim majority. Similar concerns have been expressed by campaigners about Westminster City Council, which has never been held by Labour but could see the party make ground. Recent scandals in the newspapers and rising concerns over the government’s handling of the cost of living crisis have led to several candidates distancing themselves from the national Conservative Party across the city by adding “local” to the party name at the ballot box.
Labour will be defending the largest national share of seats amongst the parties and will want to make progress ahead of the next general election in 2024. In Greater Manchester, pollsters will be watching whether the defection to Labour of MP Christian Wakeford, one of the two Conservative MPs elected for Bury in 2019’s general election, will have local implications. In Bolton, the Conservatives have led the council by a margin of just three seats since last year. Labour will be looking to make gains in such tightly fought areas.
Towards the South, although Peterborough has only a third of seats up for election, the city has long served as a battleground between the two main parties. Labour lost the parliamentary seat in the 2019 general election and whilst the Conservatives are the largest party in the council, no party holds a majority, meaning that both parties will be looking to make gains. This mirrors the state of play in Newcastle-under-Lyme, in the Midlands, where the Tories won in the 2019 General Election and are now defending a small majority with every seat up for grabs.
For the Liberal Democrats, this election is about winning enough council seats to ensure a strong base ahead of 2024, particularly across London and the South East.
While local elections in the UK are often used as a barometer for feeling towards national politicians, local matters will of course have a visible impact on voting in some areas.
One particular local issue which has invoked national debate across the country is Low Traffic Neighbourhoods (LTNs), funded by the Department for Transport but implemented by local councils. LTNs are schemes whereby barriers are introduced to residential streets to prevent drivers from using them and minimise “through-traffic”. Proponents of LTNs note they promote a modal shift to walking and cycling, reducing noise and air pollution and traffic accidents, but their accelerated introduction throughout the pandemic has proved controversial.
Local communities have opposed LTNs across various councils due to the speed with which they were introduced, problems with the consultation process, and complications around the governance structure of the roads. Councillors in some areas will no doubt be nervous of the impact of these schemes on their vote share.
For the Conservatives, serious losses at these elections will reflect poorly on the prime minister and could lead to questions about his future. However, if Labour fails to appeal to the cross-section of voters which make up its base and does not make ground across the marginal seats, the party and its leader might well find itself in trouble ahead of 2024.
This briefing sets out three policy priorities for the new metro mayor after the election to address the biggest issues facing South Yorkshire's economy.
What are metro mayors and what do they do?
Chief Executive Andrew Carter speaks with four mayoral candidates ahead of the upcoming South Yorkshire elections to discuss their priorities for improving the city region’s economy
Three things the new mayor of South Yorkshire needs to focus on in order to strengthen the region’s economy.
Leave a comment
Be the first to add a comment.