Amidst a backdrop of difficulties for local government, what might this year’s local elections mean for urban governance across England?
The English local elections on 2 May will mark a key moment in 2024’s busy political calendar. Polling day will see voters in 107 councils go to the polls to elect 2,660 councillors, with Labour and the Conservatives defending almost 1,000 seats each.
This level is significantly fewer than last year, where 8,000 council seats were up for election across 230 councils, and three quarters of councils with elections this May are only electing a third of their councillors. Results will therefore be less dramatic than last year’s local elections, where Labour overtook the Conservatives as the largest party in local government for the first time in over twenty years.
Yet it is worth noting that most of the seats up for election this year were last fought in 2021, a very strong year for the Conservatives with support for the party high following the successful Covid vaccine rollout, setting a high benchmark for the Conservatives this time around at a time when they are polling many percentage points behind.
Of the local elections taking place this May, a large proportion are happening in Primary Urban Area (PUA) councils. Below is an overview of some of the contests that are important to the future of urban governance, several of which being places where we could see new political governance of England’s urban areas emerge following polling day.
A third of seats will be up for election on 2 May in Bolton, an authority where no party has had overall control since 2019, when Labour lost its majority on the council.
Labour is still the authority’s largest group, with 28 seats, but it is three seats short of regaining its previous majority. 2023 saw Labour win seven new seats and, if this performance is repeated, this would give Labour a majority on the council.
This election will see a switch in how Bristol City Council is governed after Bristol’s residents voted to abolish the position of Mayor, a position held by Labour’s Marvin Rees since 2016. This change will mean the relative power of councillors will increase as the authority moves back to a committee system.
In terms of its political control, both Labour and Greens will be competing to take control of Bristol, with neither party being the obvious frontrunner. The Greens are in fact the largest party in Bristol, with 24 councillors, against Labour’s 23. To win a majority, either party will have to win a total of at least 26 seats. Alternatively, we will likely see a coalition of parties governing the authority.
Norwich City Council sees a third of its seats up for election – one in each of its wards. Labour, the largest group on the council, lost its overall majority following resignations from the party in November. The Green Party are the second biggest group on the council, and are in with the possibility of winning more seats.
The Liberal Democrats took majority control of Hull City Council in 2022, and currently hold power with 32 councillors to Labour’s 25. With a third of councillors up for election, and the two parties relatively close in terms of seats, the control of the council could be set to change again.
Historically, Labour and the Conservatives battle for control on Plymouth Council, and it has had a Labour majority since the 2023 local elections, when the party took the authority out of no overall control.
This May one third of councillors will be up for re-election, or 19 seats. Of this number, the Conservatives are defending nine, Labour are defending six, Independents are defending three, and the Green Party one. With Labour currently holding 33 seats on the council, they will need to win just two of the 19 seats available to retain overall control.
Salford will elect its directly elected Mayor. The position is unlikely to shift away from the control of Labour, whose incumbent Mayor Paul Dennett is seeking re-election. Residents in Salford will also get to vote for a councillor in each of the city’s 20 wards, with a third of councillors up for election, but the authority is expected to remain dominated by Labour.
No party has overall control on Sheffield City Council: Labour currently holds 39 seats to the Liberal Democrats’ 29 seats, followed by the Greens’ 14 seats. With 43 seats needed for an overall majority, the results will be close to call, and it will be one to watch on results day.
Oxford City Council was lost from Labour to no overall control in October 2023 after Labour councillors left the party in protest over its stance on the Israel-Hamas war, and this local authority could likely stand as a proxy for ongoing tensions in the Labour Party on the conflict.
When results are declared, these local elections may see a new set of urban leaders emerge who will remain in post and make decisions on how to best deliver for their communities, at a time where local government is overstretched and under resourced to deliver essential services.
Results day may also see several urban authorities move from no overall control to a stable majority of whichever political party, which may make it easier for big long-term decisions to be made from a position of influence, whether on transport or planning matters.
While local elections enable voters to express views on local issues, the results will no doubt be largely seen as both a verdict on how the Conservatives are running the country out of Number 10 Downing Street and a forecast for the results of the looming General Election. It remains to be seen whether Labour can, as polls predict, continue to make gains in urban England and beyond.
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